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Figure 1
Temperature
development in comparison to the long term mean in different seasons in the
northern hemisphere since 1856. Letters are abbreviations for months (DJF:
December, January, February; MAM: March, April, May; JJA: June, July, August;
SON: September, October, November) (Jones et al., 2001).
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Figure 2 Varietal
suitability calculated based on the Huglin Index for Geisenheim, Germany. The
estimates for the next 50 years are based on a simulation of temperature
development by the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK). The
calculations up to the year 2000 are based on temperature data from Deutscher
Wetterdienst, Geschäftsstelle Geisenheim.
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Figure 3 Predicted
distribution of precipitation across Europe in winter based on past
climatic trends by Schönwiese and Rapp (1997).
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Figure 4 Predicted
distribution of precipitation across Europe in summer based on past
climatic trends by Schönwiese and Rapp (1997).
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Figure 5
Box A:
Ambient CO2 concentration since 1958 from samples taken at the Mauna
Loa Observatory, Hawaii.
Box B: Predicted
development of CO2 concentration until the end of this century
according to assumptions made for a ´business as usual scenario´ by the 1992
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Data for A are from Keeling and Whorf
(1999), Scripps Intitution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244. Data for B
are from Wuebbles and Jain (1999) and assume:
1) world population of 11.3 billion by 2100
2) economic growth at 2.9% for 1990-2025, 2.3%
for 1990-2100
3) energy supplies of 12.000 EJ conventional
oil, 13.000 EJ natural gas, solar costs decreasing to $0.075/kWh, 191 EJ
biofuels available at $70/barrel
4) internationally agreed controls on SOx, NOx,
(sulfur and nitrogen oxides) and non-CH4 (methane) volatile organic compound
emissions
5) partial compliance
with Montreal Protocol, with gradual phase out of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) in
non-signatory countries by 2075.
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